GTA Monthly Housing Report. March 2025
Brewing Trade War and Winter Storms Push Buyers to Sidelines
While February usually marks the start of a seasonal uptrend in sales, the combination of heightened economic uncertainty emanating from a brewing trade war with the U.S. and severe winter storms pushed activity down to one if its lowest levels of the past three decades. However, with sellers also backing off last month, prices held fairly steady with only a mild decrease from a year ago.
Sales Decline Steepens:
Total MLS sales in February dropped 27% from a year ago to 4,037 homes, the lowest February result in over 25 years outside of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009 (4,005). Sales declined annually for the third consecutive month, following an 8% decline in January and 2% decline in December, with activity falling 40% below the 10-year average.
New Listings Level Out:
After a wave of supply entered the market during January, new listings began to level out in February. New listings dipped 3% month-over-month and increased 5% year-over-year, which followed a 49% annual spike in January. New listings were 6% above the 10-year average, while active listings at month-end were 82% above the 10-year average, rising 76% over the past year.
Market Conditions Favour Buyers:
The sales-to-new listings ratio of 33% remained firmly in buyer’s market territory for the second straight month (a balanced market is 40-60%), falling to the lowest February level since at least 1996 and significantly below the 10-year average of 59%. The 4.8 months of supply on the market was 2.5 times higher than the 10-year average of 1.9 months.
Mild Price Decline:
Despite weak market conditions, average selling prices remained resilient, posting a mild 2.2% annual decline in February to $1,084,547, which was a three-month high. Average prices have consistently stayed above $1 million since February 2021. While average prices were 18.7% below the market high in February 2022 ($1.3M), they were 19.2% higher than the average in February 2020 just prior to the onset of COVID-19, maintaining 10-year average growth of 7%.