GTA Monthly Housing Report. January 2025
Slow December Caps off Quiet Year for GTA Housing Market
Buyers exhibited increased patience in December after pushing sales up by more than 40% annually during the previous two months. Further anticipated interest rate cuts combined with new mortgage rules arriving mid-month that allow for longer amortizations and lower down payments for $1-1.5M homes had buyers taking a step back to assess their options in a well-supplied market. However, the momentum seen in Q4 indicates an upward trend is forming, which is expected to result in improved sales numbers throughout 2025.
Annual Sales Fall Below 70K for Second Straight Year: The year ended on a quiet note following an upswing in sales during October and November. While December resale activity dipped 2% from a year ago to 3,359 sales, Q4 sales totaling 15,870 transactions rose 30% annually, indicating improved momentum for the market heading into 2025. On the whole, the market reached a total of 67,609 sales in 2024, which was only 3% higher than the 23-year low in 2023 (65,877) and 25% below the 10-year average of 89,767 homes. The last two years saw annual sales fall below 70,000 for the first time since 2001. In that time, the GTA population increased by over 2 million.
New Listings Pick Up Speed, Inventory Reaches 16-Year High: New listings picked up again in December with a 20% year-over-year increase, representing the fastest annual pace of growth out of the past seven months. In the fourth quarter, new listings totalled 31,880 homes, which was up 8% annually and 8% above the 10-year average. The 15,393 active resale listings represented the highest year-end total since 2008, increasing 48% compared to year-end 2023 and rising 69% above the 10-year average.
Market Conditions Balanced at Year-End: The sales-to-new listings ratio was 50% in Q4, resting comfortably within the 45-60% range that characterizes a balanced market and rising from a 43% ratio a year ago, but falling below the 10-year average level of 66%. The 4.0 months of supply on the market was the highest Q4 level since 2008 and nearly double the 10-year average of 2.2 months.
Average Prices Reach 3-Year High in Q4: Average resale prices dipped 1.6% annually in December while registering annual growth of 1.2% during the fourth quarter. The Q4 average of $1,109,900 represented a three-year high but remained 4.2% below the 2021 high. The 10 year average growth rate for Q4 resale prices was 7.1%.